BANDUNG, SEATIZENS – Southeast Asian leaders gathered in Vientiane, the capital of Laos, on Wednesday for the annual Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit. They will discuss critical issues such as the ongoing civil war in Myanmar and territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
The summit will also feature meetings with global powers, including China, the United States, and Russia. These countries are competing for influence in the region. The timing of this gathering suggests that discussions may extend to the recent escalation of violence in the Middle East, although Southeast Asia has experienced only indirect repercussions from the turmoil.
ASEAN’s Limited Influence
Historically, ASEAN’s influence has faced challenges, even among its ten member states: Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei, and Laos. However, the forum often serves as a valuable platform for dialogue among superpowers interested in engaging with Southeast Asia.
This year marks a significant transition, as multiple new leaders will join the discussions. Thailand’s Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who took office in August, has become the bloc’s youngest leader at 38. Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will represent his country after Lee Hsien Loong’s departure in May. Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh will also be present, although To Lam recently became the country’s new president. Notably, President Joko Widodo of Indonesia will not attend, delegating Vice President Ma’ruf Amin to represent the nation as Prabowo Subianto prepares to assume the presidency later this month. Japan’s newly appointed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will make his first international trip by attending the summit.
The Myanmar Crisis
The Myanmar crisis will take center stage during the meetings. Paetongtarn emphasized its importance, calling it an “extremely important issue.” The situation in Myanmar has worsened since the military ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021. The military suppressed protests that called for a return to democracy. Though Myanmar’s military junta has agreed to an ASEAN peace plan for a ceasefire and mediation, clashes with pro-democracy guerrillas and ethnic rebels continue, resulting in nearly 6,000 fatalities.
Myanmar plans to send Foreign Ministry Permanent Secretary Aung Kyaw Moe to the summit. This will mark the first high-level delegation in three years, as ASEAN prohibited political representatives from participating in late 2021. Experts warn that allowing a senior diplomat from Myanmar may signal ASEAN’s compromise, indicating fatigue in handling the crisis. This situation suggests minimal prospects for significant breakthroughs.
Maritime Disputes and Tensions with China
Discussions will also cover maritime territorial disputes involving ASEAN nations and China in the South China Sea. This area stands as a vital conduit for global trade. Countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei have competing claims against China’s assertions of near-total sovereignty over the sea. Indonesia has expressed concerns about what it sees as Beijing’s intrusions into its exclusive economic zone.
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Tensions between the Philippines and China have escalated this year. Chinese forces employed aggressive tactics to hinder Filipino supplies to naval personnel asserting claims on a disputed atoll. Despite a July agreement aimed at mitigating confrontations, hostilities flared again in August after incidents involving collisions between vessels, with each side accusing the other of deliberate provocation. The Philippines, a long-standing U.S. ally, has criticized fellow ASEAN members for their lack of action against China’s assertive stance.
Vietnam’s Accusations Against China
Recently, Vietnam accused Chinese forces of assaulting its fishermen and violating its sovereignty in the disputed Paracel Islands.
While ASEAN members will likely prioritize discussions on these disputes, they may face challenges in achieving definitive outcomes. Countries not in direct conflict with China might prioritize their relationships with Beijing over regional solidarity. Muhammad Faizal Abdul Rahman, a research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noted that nations often prefer conflict avoidance while seeking geostrategic benefits. He stated, “In reality, national interests matter more than regional interests.”
(Firyal Trinidad)
